By Sola Charles
THE World Health Organization (WHO) says COVID-19 deaths in Africa will drop to around 23,000 by the end of 2022, which is almost a 94 percent decline compared with 2021 if current variants and transmission dynamics remain constant.
According to the global health body’s new modeling projection, however, a variant that is 200 percent more lethal would cause an increase in deaths to more than 70,000 in the region over the period.
The analysis, published in The Lancet Global Health, a scientific journal, says while the African region reported 113,102 deaths in 2021 through official channels, about 1 in 3 deaths were missed and the true number of deaths was 350,000.
Disclosing the development during a virtual online press conference, the WHO Regional Director for Africa, Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, revealed that the latest analysis suggests that estimated COVID deaths in the African region will shrink to around 60 a day in 2022.
As of June 1, 2022, confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 55 African countries exceeded 11.7 million while over 300 million vaccinations have been administered across the continent.
Reported deaths in Africa reached 253, 954 with 9.8 million recovered.
"Last year, we lost an average of 970 people every day. This is a catastrophically high toll. Our latest analysis suggests that estimated deaths in the African region will shrink to around 60 a day in 2022.
“The low number of deaths expected this year is a huge achievement for the region and a testament to the efforts of countries and partners. However, the job is not yet done. Every time we sit back and relax, COVID-19 flares up again. The threat of new variants remains real, and we need to be ready to cope with this ever-present danger."
According to Moeti, a significant number of cases have also gone unreported. The study's findings infer that only one in 71 COVID-19 cases in the region are recorded and 166. 2 million infections are anticipated in 2022 compared with the estimated 227.5 million which occurred in 2021.
Moeti explained that the gap in the number of cases and deaths in 2022 is due to increasing vaccination, improved pandemic response, and natural immunity from previous infections which, while not preventing re-infections, stop severe forms of the disease and deaths.
"We have learned many lessons on how to stay a step ahead of the virus. Now is the time to refine our response and identify populations most at-risk of COVID-19. Countries must intensify efforts to conduct a targeted response that provides the most vulnerable people with the health services they need, including COVID-19 vaccines and effective treatment."
The analysis shows that the variation in the number of deaths was driven by biological and physical factors, and primary comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, HIV, and obesity which increase the severity and the risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients. The prevalence of these comorbidities increased in countries with higher death tolls.
